ТРОПИЧЕСКИЕ ЦИКЛОНЫ И КРУПНОМАСШТАБНАЯ ДИНАМИКА АТМОСФЕРЫ тема диссертации и автореферата по ВАК РФ 25.00.29, кандидат наук Стадхолм Джошуа Генри Пол

• Стадхолм Джошуа Генри Пол
• кандидат наук
• 2018

Оглавление диссертации кандидат наук Стадхолм Джошуа Генри Пол

Contents

Introduction

1 Literature Review

1.1 Observational considerations

1.2 Theoretical considerations

1.3 Modelling efforts

2 Concurrent Changes to Hadley Circulation and the Meridional Distribution of Tropical Cyclones

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Data and methodology

2.2.1 Observational TC data

2.2.2 Hadley circulation extent and intensity diagnostics

2.2.3 Study period

2.3 Changes in meridional TC distribution in recent decades

2.3.1 Reference climatology of TCs

2.3.2 Meridional quantile regressions

2.4 Hadley circulation extent and comparison to TC latitudes

2.4.1 Long-term trends

2.4.2 Shared interannual variability

2.5 Hadley circulation intensity and comparison to TC latitudes

2.5.1 Long-term trends

2.5.2 Shared interannual variability

2.6 Potential dynamical linkages

2.7 Summary and discussion

2.A Helmholtz decomposition and zonally-asymmetric mean meridional circulation

2.B Algorithms for diagnosing zonally-asymmetric Hadley circulation

T3

3 Simulating the Terrestrial Atmosphere under Hypohydrostatic Rescal-

ing and Different Meridional Temperature Gradients

3.1 Introduction

3.2 Model formulation

3.2.1 Model details

3.2.2 Hypohydrostatic rescaling

3.3 Evolution of zonally-averaged quantities

3.3.1 Moisture and temperature

3.3.2 Radiative fluxes

3.4 Available potential energy

3.5 Large-scale circulation

3.6 Summary

3.A Computing moist available potential energy

4 Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones in Aquaplanet Simulations with

Different Meridional Sea-Surface Temperature Gradients

4.1 Introduction

4.1.1 Problem statement

4.1.2 Cyclone phase space diagrams

4.2 Formal separation analysis

4.2.1 Clustering algorithm

4.2.2 Cyclone separation

4.3 Cyclone characteristics

4.3.1 Aggregate results

4.3.2 Phase space density distribution and trajectories

4.3.3 Composites

4.4 Comparisons with observations and other simulations

4.4.1 Wind-pressure relation

4.4.2 Comparable aquaplanet simulations

4.5 Summary

4.A Gradient wind balance in tropical cyclones

5 Discussing the Isolation of Meridional SST Gradients' Influence on

Tropical Cyclone Latitudes

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Thermal wind and the subtropical jet

5.3 El Niño diversity and Hadley circulation asymmetry

5.4 Limitations

5.4.1 Numerical representations of TCs

5.4.2 Infinite heat-bath assumption

Summary and Outlook

Bibliography

Введение диссертации (часть автореферата) на тему «ТРОПИЧЕСКИЕ ЦИКЛОНЫ И КРУПНОМАСШТАБНАЯ ДИНАМИКА АТМОСФЕРЫ»

Abstract

Recent observational evidence indicates that the meridional distribution of tropical cyclones has shifted poleward in both hemispheres since at least the 1980s, a time at which global observations may be first considered reliable. Concurrently, the dominant large-scale laminar overturning circulation of the tropical troposphere, Hadley circulation, has been shown to be expanding and potentially weakening. Despite this, no dynamic or thermodynamic consideration of the large-scale processes in the atmosphere and ocean simultaneously governing the meridional distribution of tropical cyclones and Hadley circulation has been provided.

Here, such an analysis is conducted using all available state-of-the-art data: two independent archives for tropical cyclones and the three most modern numerical reanalyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA2, JRA55). Based on Helmholtz theory for vector decomposition, novel metrics are used to define the asymmetric Hadley circulation. All life-cycle stages from the nascent convective vortex, to life-time maximum intensity and warm-core disintegration are considered. Coherent fluctuations in both long-term linear trends and detrended interannual variability are found. Genesis and lifetime-maximum-intensity latitudes share trend sign and magnitude with shifts in local Hadley circulation extent, with rates being ~0.25 °lat decade-1. This concomitant relationship is stable for both hemispheres as a whole, as well as for the western and eastern parts of the Pacific and North Atlantic, where Hadley circulation dynamics account for 35% of the total interannual variability of tropical cyclone trajectories. Further observational analysis of potential dynamical mechanisms and consideration of axisymmetric nearly-viscid theory indicate meridional sea surface temperature gradients as a dominant control on Hadley circulation extent.

The isolated influence of large-scale temperature gradients upon meridional tropical cyclone distribution and Hadley circulation is studied. An idealised model framework is adopted based on the anelastic approximation and using a modification of the vertical momentum equation to permit the explicit representation of moist convection on a near-global domain. These experiments demonstrate a convergence of the

meridional distribution, as well as some of the dynamical properties, of tropical and warm-core seclusion cyclones with midlatitude warming. A criterion for the formal separation between these two is developed and applied. Tropical cyclone response to perturbations of the meridional temperature gradient is poleward, highly nonlinear and nonmonotonic, while Hadley circulation response is a quasi-linear equatorward shift and slight weakening. It is concluded that links between Hadley circulation and tropical cyclones found in the observational data are likely related to changes in the subtropical jet stream, as well as shifts in the intertropical convergence zone and increasing convective stability.

Заключение диссертации по теме «Физика атмосферы и гидросферы», Стадхолм Джошуа Генри Пол

Summary and Outlook

In sum, this thesis concludes that the contemporary understanding is that there are major open theoretical questions about large-scale constraints on the meridional distribution of TCs and how they might behave across different climate states. In particular, a physically robust theory for tropical cyclogenesis that agrees with the observations is absent as well as an analytical theory that accounts for observed influences of eddies on Hadley circulation and as its thermal coupling to the ocean on longer timescales. A consistent poleward shift in the TC latitude of lifetime maximum intensity has been identified in the observations dating back to the 1980s. Palaeo-climatological records indicate a consistent poleward shift in North Atlantic strong hurricanes dating back to at least 1550 A.D. These shifts are implicitly and explicitly related to concurrent changes in Hadley circulation, although no detailed consideration of potential dynamical linkages was presented in the literature prior to this thesis.

We have identified poleward trends in seasonal-mean latitudes of TCs and quantified these in both existing observational records over the period of reliable global coverage (1981-2016). The zonally-asymmetric Hadley circulation has been defined by employing Helmholtz theory for vector decomposition. From this, overturning terminus latitudes and intensity are estimated in the three state-of-the-art reanalyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA2, JRA55) across all TC basins and in both hemispheres. Long-term trends covering 1981-2016 are computed. Interannual variability in TC latitudes, Hadley circulation extent, and intensity is decomposed into the long-term trend and detrended interannual variability components. TC genesis and lifetime maximum intensity latitudes share both trend sign and magnitude with shifts in local Hadley circulation extent, with rates both being ~0.25 ±0.1 ° latitude decade-1. Both these lifecycle stages in hemispheric means and all Pacific TC basins, as well as poleward-extreme North Atlantic lysis latitudes, share ~35% of their interannual variability with Hadley circulation extent. Local overturning intensity is linked only

to eastern North Pacific TC latitudes, where strong local overturning corresponds to equatorward shifts. Examination of potential dynamical linkages implicates La Niña-like sea surface temperature gradients to poleward Hadley circulation termini. This corresponds to increased tropical and reduced subtropical vertical wind shear everywhere except in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific, where the opposite is true.

The hypohydrostatic rescaling approach to the vertical momentum equation has been leveraged to explicitly simulate moist convection in a near-global model. This yields an effective resolution for the 15 km horizontal resolution model of 1 km. This is sufficient to represent eyewall convective processes without parameterisation and thus significantly improves the representation of TCs. A formal separation analysis has been developed and applied to distinguish TCs from extratropical warm-core seclusion cyclones. This is necessary since in the warmer-wetter climates the physical properties of the two types converge and overlap in their meridional distribution. The TC meridional distribution is altered significantly as the meridional SST gradient is relaxed. However, the response is strongly non-linear and the mid-latitudes become additionally active for tropical cyclogenesis in the warmer-wetter climates. Meanwhile, the Hadley circulation exhibits a very different response and in fact weakens and shifts slightly equatorward. It is concluded that the concurrency found in the observations is likely related to changes in the subtropical jet, and potentially the latitude of the ITCZ. Further work should focus on more complex forcings and coupled models.

Список литературы диссертационного исследования кандидат наук Стадхолм Джошуа Генри Пол, 2018 год

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