Влияние траекторий распада коммунистической системы на переход к новым политическим режимам в Восточной Европе тема диссертации и автореферата по ВАК РФ 00.00.00, кандидат наук Эверетт Джудас Джейбс

• Эверетт Джудас Джейбс
• кандидат наук
• 2023

Оглавление диссертации кандидат наук Эверетт Джудас Джейбс

Contents

Introduction

The Research Problem

Research Question and Hypothesis

The Goals and Objectives of The Study

Logical Foundations

Limitations of the Study

Structure of the Study

The Existing Literature

Diversity in Results

Diversity in Demise

Nature of the Regimes

Pre-Collapse Factors

Elite Relations and Bargaining

Summary

Dissertation validation

Coverage of dissertation materials in publications

PART I

Methodology

Case by Case Analysis

Conclusion

PART II

Measures of Democracy

The Length of Transitions

V-Dem Measures

Enhanced Typology

Analysis of Individual Cases

Change of Sovereignty + Top-down

Bottom-up + Change of Sovereignty

Top-down + Change of Sovereignty

Purely Top-down

Bottom-up (Alone or with Top-down)

Alternate Explanations

Geography

Violence

Previous Statehood

Previous Democracy

Post-2004 Changes?

Conclusion

PART III

Process Tracing

Regime Self-Preservation

Non-Democratic/Authoritarian

Communist

Application to Cases

Poland

Ukraine

The Czech Republic

Slovakia and Romania

Too Much Civil Engagement?

Conclusion

Conclusions

Discussion

Future Research

Bibliography

Введение диссертации (часть автореферата) на тему «Влияние траекторий распада коммунистической системы на переход к новым политическим режимам в Восточной Европе»

Introduction

This study addresses a paradoxically both saturated and understudied area: that of post-communist transitions in Europe. While the transitions themselves have been subjected to intense study for decades and the demise of communist regimes were of intense interest, albeit for a shorter time, the two have remained conspicuously separate. The goal of this study is to place the two, unnaturally separated elements, together once again - in a very limited context, namely that of the quality of democracy. The goal is to develop an approach which is capable of revealing the explanatory power of the kind of demise which unfolded in communist regimes.

The fact is that immediately preceding the revolutions of 1989 no one in the West, Moscow, or Eastern Europe, foresaw the collapse of the region's socialist regimes in the months that were to follow (Levesque, 1997). This sudden collapse was unexpected and there is little evidence to suggest that anytime in academia, the military, the media, politics and diplomacy had seen it coming (Sebestyen, 2010). The collapses might have been largely unforeseen, but they did grow out of different regimes, which since the 1950s had grown increasingly diverse in both structure and policies (Leff, 1996: 77).

These facts create an interesting situation wherein most social scientists and political analysts failed to consider the East European revolutions a realistic possibility, let alone anticipate them (Pop, 2013). Adam Przeworski (1991) famously called the failure to predict Eastern Europe's "Autumn of the People" of 1989 "a dismal failure of political science". Yet, for how difficult the demise of communist regimes in Eastern Europe was for experts to predict, the diversity between the emergent regimes was evident from a very early stage. Herbert Kitschelt (2003) noted that this post-communist diversity occurred in a window of around three years

(1990-93) and that following this window the new regime structures were more or less "locked in" in almost all polities.

The speed of developments occurring at the time most likely meant that there was little time to take stock and reflect on the demise of communist regimes or the prior evolving diversity. No sooner had communist regimes collapsed, than ambitious highly complex and largely unprecedented transitions were already underway. The practical matters at hand often overtook the issue of understanding the differences between different demises, even when demises were considered they were often compartmentalised and discussed in isolation, or at least separately from the issues of transitions. This is precisely the issue which is addressed here, that despite the unexpected nature of the sudden demise of communist regimes, the way in which the demise of these regimes occurred may well have incredible explanatory power when addressing how the changes were locked in so quickly. Furthermore, the kind of demise will likely be the result of developments, and the diversity of developments, within individual regimes.

The Research Problem

As those within academia, the military, the media, politics, and diplomacy sought to understand the processes and events which led to the demise of communism, they were also required to grapple with the issues of unfolding transitions. In the early stages after the demise, the speed of changes in the world, and particularly the post-communist world, pushed both academia and political actors forward into the sphere of post-communist transitions. While much brainpower, and many words, have been spent on trying to understand and explain both the end of the communist experience and the following transitions, far too often these have been separate exercises. The separation in these endeavours will be

discussed in more detail when discussing the literature below, but it is precisely this separation which provides both problems and opportunities.

The separation and compartmentalisation of approaches to the demise of communism and many issues of transitions create problems in seeking answers in the literature and provide opportunities to add to an area which is severely underdeveloped. The focus of this research is the differing results in the development of post-communist democratic systems. Even the smallest differences can produce vastly different results. The issue of how this juncture launched many other processes and conditioned the future is poorly understood at this moment in time, but it is certainly a vitally important issue.

Therefore, considering the differences between the demises of communist regimes, along with the differing realities and results, can illuminate how the demise of the communist regimes affected the following regime. In this study the focus is on the political systems, and specifically the quality of democracy, although others could undertake very similar exercises in different areas. Perhaps by building this approach to focus on the quality of democracy, the approach can develop in a way which may be applied to different contexts, but also with different focuses.

Research Question and Hypothesis

In order to provide context and understanding for the hypothesis a cursory overview of the three types of communist demise is required. A more detailed version of this information is presented in the methodology section later, but here a short summary ought to suffice. The first type or demise is a top-down demise, which may involve reformers or revolutionaries seizing control of central states and institutions, for example in a palace coup. It centrally involves politicians and elites,

perhaps with negotiations between elites. Later reforms are launched by the politicians which seized control.

The second type is a bottom-up demise which involves people increasing their access to assembly, association, and speech. Mass movements are a feature of this type of demise, as are Grassroots movements. Both of these may be populist or nationalist in nature. Generally, the mass mobilisation must be central to the demise of the regime.

The third type is a demise due to a change in sovereignty. This type includes an increased demand for sovereignty, self-rule, federalism, or devolution. Often though, this may include some continued support for the communist regime, federation, or central government, which continues until the end. If there is not active support then an ambivalent attitude is displayed. Overall, these cases exhibit signs that without a change in sovereignty, it would have been unlikely that the regime would have met its demise when it actually did.

There is some inevitable criticism which is levelled at all such classification approaches in social sciences, in that most of the observable cases will include elements of two, if not all three, of the types. This is unfortunately unavoidable in the complex and interwoven nature of society and societal, as well as political, change. In essence to prohibit any kind of typography, classification, or division in which there is no overlap at all would be to prohibit much valuable social science. However, the risk of meaninglessness can, and should, be mitigated as much as possible by focusing on the element which is decisive. Furthermore, by acknowledging that the reality is a mix of the types and not trying to obfuscate that fact, but instead enmeshing the reality in the study and not working against it a more realistic picture is created. Rather than denying the reality to make the study seem more authoritative, the study must incorporate the fact and seek to separate the

decisive elements from the indecisive, without attempting to delete them from the picture altogether.

The research question which will be applied to the selected countries is as follows: How did the differing types of demise of communism affect the quality of democracy in the post-communist system? Beyond a research question, it is also important to provide a hypothesis, which as a result of this study will be accepted or rejected, which is as follows:

Power exchanged in a top-down manner resulted in higher quality democracies.

This hypothesis is based, in part, on the work of Higley and Burton (2006: 1-2) who state that: "the sine qua non of liberal democracy is a well-articulated, internally accommodative, and relatively secure political elite—what we call a consensually united elite. No liberal democracy has ever emerged without the formation of such an elite". Higley and Burton (2006: 3) argue that the formation of a political elite whose members and factions are disposed toward mutually deferential and restrained political behaviour always forms before liberal democracy; moreover, once formed a consensually united elite and the political regime it operates are remarkably persistent (Higley and Burton, 2006: 12). The role of elites in supporting, or withdrawing support for undemocratic regimes in South America has also been noted by other authors (O'Donnell et al., 1991: 92). Linz and Stepan (1996) found that with equal socioeconomic levels of development some types of democracy are possible with one type of polity, but virtually impossible if the elites in charge of the state attempt to build another type of polity. Therefore, a top-down change in regime

suggests that the elites are, at least somewhat, united and ought to be less likely to build another type of polity.

The Goals and Objectives of The Study

The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between the demise of communist regimes in Central and Eastern Europe and the quality of democracy in the post-communist regime. The objectives are as follows:

• To provide a classification or typology of the type of demise to a broad selection of cases

• To measures the quality of democracy in the post-communist regimes

• To explore the mechanisms and processes of two cases in depth, so as to better understand the results

Logical Foundations

Before continuing with any discussion on the methodology of such a task, it is important to acknowledge the logical foundations which inform such an approach. Firstly, the fact that a turning point in history is not the fulfilment or realisation of a natural and predetermined path through history was once controversial. Indeed, many schools of theory and philosophy, from liberalism to Marxism, preferred to see history as linear. Each event was just confirmation of the path which was already laid out in front of the actors. However, this view has been increasingly questioned and has somewhat fallen from popularity, although there is no evidence to suggest that it will ever disappear altogether. Nevertheless, as the social sciences developed the tendency to focus on how, at important moments, things could have been different if another path had been taken. Such counterfactuals are sometimes

controversial, but with or without them - moves away from beliefs about the predetermined nature of developments were apparent.

Early examples of this move towards understanding history as contingent include the historical development of the market economy in England, which was the object of Karl Polanyi's (2001) book entitled The Great Transformation: The Political and Economic Origins of Our Time, which was first published in 1944. In States and social revolutions: a comparative analysis of France, Russia, and China, first published in 1979, Skocpol (2008), who is usually associated with New Institutionalism, uses process-tracing to analyse contrasting cases (some in which revolutions occurred and some in which revolutions did not). More recent works in this vein include Bo Rothstein and Sven Steinmo's (2002) Restructuring the Welfare State: Political Institutions and Policy Change and Acemoglu & Robinson's (2013) influential work Why nations fail: The origins of power, prosperity, and poverty.

The development of new institutionalism and historical institutionalism grew out of the changing ideas on how human history develops. Historical institutionalism can be broadly understood as illustrating how political struggles are mediated by the institutional setting they take place within, employing a definition of institutions that includes both formal organisations and informal rules and procedures that structure conduct (Steinmo et al., 1992). An essential building block of historical institutionalism is the concept of "critical junctures", many causal arguments in this tradition "a dual model of institutional development characterised by relatively long periods of path-dependent institutional stability and reproduction that are punctuated occasionally by briefphases of institutional flux—referred to as critical junctures—during which more dramatic change is possible" (Capoccia and Kelemen, 2007). The end of communism represents one such brief phase of institutional flux.

Limitations of the Study

There are many limitations which must be placed on any study, the first

limitation to consider is the issue of the selection of which states to be included in a comparative study, the question can be phrased both positively or negatively: which states ought to be included; or, which ought to be excluded. Previous studies, for example Kopstein and Reilly's (2000) Geographic diffusion and the transformation of the post-communist world, have established that the largest difference of fortune exists between post-communist states is between Central Eastern European and Central Asian states. While one avenue of merit is to explore the differences between two relatively distinct groups this well-trodden path may actually obfuscate differences between the countries within each group. Furthermore, the focus of this study is on the effects of the type of demise on the quality of democracy which exists in the following regime. Therefore, as many countries as possible, including from Eastern Europe and Central Asia will be included. Doing so provides a control, or element of, for geographical considerations and may well amplify the differences between states, allowing a clearer picture of the cause effect relationship between policy inputs and realised outputs to be drawn.

Some cases must be excluded however, East Germany simply cannot be compared with the other due to its reunification with the Federal Republic of Germany. The demise of the following communist regimes shall be considered: The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, the Polish People's Republic, the Hungarian People's Republic, the Czechoslovak Socialist Republic, the People's Republic of Bulgaria, and the Socialist Republic of Romania. The demises lead to the independent post-communist regimes of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan - all from the USSR. Additionally, Albania, Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania and Mongolia are considered, as are the Czech 12

Republic and Slovakia - from the former Czechoslovakia. The State Union of Serbia and Montenegro, Croatia, Slovenia, Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina - all from Yugoslavia, are also considered.

Beyond the limitations of case selection is the issue of time. Why should such a study be undertaken now? Firstly, as previously noted, in the months and years after the collapse of communism, the focus was very much on transition - how to understand and improve the experience of countries transitioning in that very moment. This is both natural and understandable, however, the moment has changed. Transitions have matured and there are lessons to be learned, moreover, the availability of documents has allowed historians to piece together a more complete view of the end of communism and the Cold War.

More information is available than ever before and transitions have matured enough for conclusions to be drawn. On the other hand, that does not mean that changes which were unleashed in the late 1980s have no relevance for these countries today. Indeed, on the 25th anniversary of the breakdown of the USSR, Serhii Plokhy (2016) wrote that "the collapse of the Soviet Union, like the disintegration of past empires, is a process rather than an event. And the collapse of the last empire is still unfolding today". In fact, allowing some time for this process to mature and develop actually provides an opportunity for more meaningful conclusions to be drawn based on a more significant amount of time and therefore a more significant data set. Given that the changes have had time to mature and the fact that there is an opportunity to compare several countries which were all in a similar position, there is a real opportunity for a comparative study to provide meaningful reflections.

Given that the changes were said to be still developing twenty-five years after the demise of communism the issue of how to limit the timeframe of the study is a

little complicated. Exactly how long transitions can be considered to last for a complex issue, the subject of much debate. This debate is engaged with more closely in the second part of this study, where the decision of timeframe has the most salience. However, while the study focuses on the most comparable period, it is important to also consider as full a picture as possible, so as to avoid the impression that there is something hidden out of frame or that the time frame is an example of cherry-picking data. Therefore, a larger time frame is also reflected upon.

Structure of the Study

The study is split into three parts. The first part serves to provide a classification or typology to the demise of each of the selected communist regimes. The second part focuses on measuring the relationship between the types and the quality of democracy. The third part selects two cases of which to undertake detailed process tracing, revealing further information about how the results found in the second part developed.

The Existing Literature

At this juncture in the study, it is time to consider the considerable body of literature which already exists on the topic. The fact that such a sizable body of literature already exists is not a negative, it merely means that there is much more to draw upon and such a foundation only increases the likelihood of being able to have confidence in any results. This section critically engages with the differing types of literature available on the topic, beginning with the diversity in results of the transition, before considering the diversity in demise, the nature of the regimes, precollapse factors and the relations and bargaining of elites.

Diversity in Results

The diversity in the results of post-communist transitions was the focus of many studies, particularly earlier in the transition process. While much of discussion the focused on shock therapy versus gradualism (Popov, 2000), the debate on whether this was a double, triple or quadruple transition sought to broaden the debate (Kuzio, 2001). In this vein, the need for stronger state institutions to facilitate effective privatisation was noted (McFaul, 1995). However, much of the literature focused on political and economic change, for example Crawford and Arend Lijphart's (1995) Explaining Political and Economic Change in Post-Communist Eastern Europe, similar approaches were applied to single cases, for example Aslund (2007) has indicated that the transition to capitalism was much more effective than the democratic transition in the Russian case.

As mentioned in the introduction, Kitschel (2003) noted that there was a relatively early window for post-communist diversity to occur and that since then countries which were more democratic have stayed that way and countries that were authoritarian have not reversed course. Moreover, that there may actually be a tendency towards polarisation (Kitschelt, 2003). McFaul (2002) conceptualised the divergence in results as a fourth wave of democracy and dictatorship, something which adds weight to both the idea of a small window for change and the decision to focus on the demise as a critical juncture. In some cases, former communist states were classified by the diversity in their results of transition, such as separating them into authoritarian, semi-authoritarian, and democratic regimes (Bielasiak, 2006). Generally, the idea of studying democracy and authoritarianism in the post-communist world has been popular (Bunce et al., 2010), but many "democracies with adjectives" have also been coined "authoritarian democracy", "neopatrimonial democracy", "military-dominated democracy", and "protodemocracy" (Collier and Levitsky, 1997). Russia alone has been conceptualised as a flawed democracy

(Rutland, 1998), hybrid regime (Shevtsova, 2001), managed democracy (Colton and McFaul, 2003; Lipman and McFaul, 2001), managed pluralism (Balzer, 2003), and sovereign democracy (Okara, 2007).

The impact of competition on creating the diversity among post-communist regimes has been noted. Hellmen showed that in countries where the governments were most vulnerable to the threat of electoral backlash from the losers of transition which adopted and sustained the most comprehensive reform programs. On the other hand, those governments which were insulated from electoral pressures made only partial progress in economic reforms; additionally, once adopted reforms were not reversed even if the reforming government were removed from power (Hellman, 1998).

Others have explained the diversity in results mostly through geographical differences (Kopstein and Reilly, 2000), the lens of modernity (Eisenstadt, 1992), political factors (Beyer et al., 2001), including institutional design (Elster et al., 1998). Other approaches have included historical institutionalism, for example Capitalism and democracy in Central and Eastern Europe (Ekiert and Hanson, 2003), and Postsocialist pathways: Transforming politics and property in East Central Europe (Stark and Bruszt, 1998).

Diversity in terms of the plurality of modernising agency and its creativity, multi-interpretability and difference as primary elements of modernity and the resulting institutional variety in societal constellations has also been noted (Blokker, 2005). Simply put, diversity is a fact of life in Europe generally, this was no less true of the transitioning states.

It is also worth bearing in mind that the development of regimes does not happen in vacuum and broader trends are also visible. In this regard, Levitsky and Way (2002) note that while some forms of authoritarianism, such as totalitarianism

and bureaucratic authoritarianism, became more difficult to sustain, other nondemocratic regime types took on greater importance in the 1990s, including competitive authoritarianism.

Generally, what can be seen is a variety of angles and lenses applied to furthering the understanding of the diversity in the results which post-communist transitions resulted in. However, few if any have connected this task with the task of furthering the understanding of the diversity in the demises of communist regimes. The situation with this literature is explored below, but the rich literature on the diversity of results does still present an opportunity in that there is a lack of a systemised connection to the diversity in demise.

Diversity in Demise

The core of this study is the idea of the demise in communist regimes being a critical juncture, as such the diversity in demise of communist regimes is vitally important. Perhaps the biggest diversity in demise is the fact that some communist regimes collapsed while others did not, which is the central focus of Dimitrov's (2013) work. This work asked why ten regimes in Eastern Europe and Mongolia that eventually collapsed between 1989-1991, while China, Vietnam, Laos, North Korea, and Cuba survived the collapse of the Berlin Wall. The findings were that careful management of economic performance and the strategic use of limited political reform had facilitated resilience by limiting popular discontent.

Given the role of the rise of nationalism in the demise of communist regimes, it should be no surprise that this was the focus of multiple studies. Hale's findings on this topic are surprising in that it was the richest regions which were most eager to secede, not the poorest; moreover, those regions which already enjoyed the most autonomy would become hungry for more and that the demonstrative effects can play a significant role in promoting secession. Surprisingly, whether a region's

native groups had suffered egregious forms of ethnic victimisation at the hands of the central government in the past or previously existed as an independent state in the twentieth century did not appear to matter (Hale, 2000).

Respected Canadian Soviet expert Jacques Levesque produced an engaging account of the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe, in large part due to his utilisation of interviews with actors who were involved. His work The Enigma Of 1989 is a very thorough look at the various ends of communism around Eastern Europe (Levesque, 1997), which manages to balance both breadth and depth, providing useful insights. Taking a similarly broad view, Adrian Pop (2013) finds eight factors which affected the demise of communist regimes in 1989, including the contagion factor and the discrediting of Marxist-Leninist ideology.

While some texts, such as Levesque's, focus on a large number of countries, others favour a narrower selection. An excellent example of how a narrower focus can produce exemplary results is Serhii Plokhy's (2014) The Last Empire the Decline of the USSR, which has a focus on Ukraine. Outlining the political developments surrounding the separation of Ukraine from the USSR and Kyiv-Moscow relations in great detail. Other studies have focused on single issues instead of single countries, for example the role of religion (Weigel, 2003), scholarly exchanges and the collapse of Communism (Kassof, 1995), and the influence of the collapse of East European communism within the Soviet Union (Kramer, 2003).

As previously stated, few if any have connected this task with the task of furthering the understanding of the diversity in the demises of communist regimes. As this section has shown, there is a vast literature available which focuses on the demises of communism themselves, from various different angles. This literature will be an incredibly useful resource as a systematic approach to connect the two elements is embarked upon.

Nature of the Regimes

It was not only at the stage of collapse or transition that diversity was noted, many had already been highlighting differences between the communist regimes. As communist regimes developed in Eastern Europe so did the accompanying studies of these regimes and meta discussions on how such comparisons should be made (Kautsky, 1967; Shoup, 1968; Skilling, 1960; Tucker, 1967). The significant differences between the communist parties of the region were studied (Seton-Watson, 1958), an incredibly important factor in one party states. Some, such as Meyer, noted that communist regimes differed from each other and had also undergone significant changes (Meyer, 1967). Such differences presented themselves in different ways, naturally the flash points of 1956, 1968 and 1981 may stand out beyond the average day to day functioning of states but this is perhaps unfair. Differences such as experiments with national communism inside the USSR (Palij, 1984: 19), outside the USSR (Dziewanowski, 1957; Haven, 1957), and goulash communism (Nyyssonen, 2006), are clearly highlighted by various studies.

Broader studies have focused on the political legitimation in communist states (Rigby and Feher, 1982), political culture and communist studies (Brown, 1984). A central theme of studies on the region was the stressing of the fact that the region was not uniform, homogeneous or monolithic (Rakowska-Harmstone, 1979). Works on communism in Eastern Europe often took the communist countries of the region one by one, focusing on the developments of each one (Staar, 1988). Other works focused on the USSR and East-Central Europe, as well as the two's relationship (Staar, 1991).

Naturally, much more attention was paid to the Soviet Union than to its satellite states in Eastern Europe, due to its status as the first communist regime, length of existence and importance vis-a-vis both the West and its satellites. Works by noted western Soviet experts including Fitzpatrick (2000, 2008), Kotkin, (1997), 19

Cohen (1985), Tucker (1972), and Schapiro (1970, 1984) helped to move understanding of the Soviet Union forward. While such studies are not connected to the demise of communism directly, they offer vital context in understanding the regimes before their collapse. Moreover, the nature of the regimes, as well as the diversity between the regimes, is undoubtedly a vital element in this puzzle.

Pre-Collapse Factors

Within transition literature it was quite controversial whether features of the old authoritarian regimes systematically relate to the pathways of political regime change (Kitschelt, 1999: 29). Nevertheless, when considering the deep-seated reasons for the failure of communist regimes, many found the reasons to be located in the historical development of the nations. Grigore Pop-Eleches finds that post-communist regime trajectories have largely been circumscribed by difference in historical legacies, but that it is much more difficult to assess which legacies are most salient due to the specific nature of different models and choice of democracy indicator (Pop-Eleches, 2007).

Darden and Grzymala-Busse (2006) found that the combination of the timing and the content of the introduction to mass literacy either sustained the legitimacy of communist regimes or led to their rapid demise. They argued that mass literacy more of the pattern in the collapse of communism than structural, modernisation, or communist legacy accounts are able to, which indicates a clear and sustained causal chain.

Some of the features of the collapse of communist regimes focused on smaller issues, such as whether the communist regime in Poland may have survived if a different electoral system had been applied (Kaminski, 1999). Moving beyond the collapse itself, historical legacies and their impact on post-communist voting behaviour has also been considered (Roper and Fesnic, 2003). While Shain et al.

(1995) considered interim governments in historical and contemporary democratisation experiences.

The connecting of pre-collapse factors with the demise, or perhaps more commonly with the post-communist transition, is as close as the literature comes to the kind of approach which this study attempts to build. This, however, is still not exactly what is envisaged as the type of demise is not part of the pre-collapse factors which various studies have shown has some explanatory power when understanding the transitions, or the strength of the rebuttal of the communist party in the first free elections.

Elite Relations and Bargaining

The relationships between elites and their bargaining are an important factor in understanding the communist regimes themselves, the demise of the regimes and the transition to democracy, particularly where elites would not allow the transition to full democracy. Magaloni (2008) explored the way dictators engage in power sharing, especially focusing on the role of autocratic political parties and elections in enabling power sharing. Boix and Svolik (2013) focused on why some dictatorships establish institutions that may constrain their leaders, arguing that they do so as institutions promote the survival of dictatorships by facilitating authoritarian power-sharing. In the demise of communist regimes, the role of elite relations and their bargaining cannot be overlooked. Firstly, the role of negotiations in roundtable talks with opposition groups (Elster, 1996), and also in attempting to hold countries together (Henderson, 1995; Russell, 1996).

The growth of one-party rule throughout the second half of the twentieth century and the early twenty first century prompted calls to study the phenomenon more closely, including autocrats' ability to simultaneously minimise threats from the elites and from the masses (Magaloni and Kricheli, 2010). Attached to such

issues is the question of state repression and the maintenance of political order. Such a maintenance of political order undoubtedly involves considering both elite relations, as well as the elites' relations with the masses.

The relationship between elites and the masses is another central part of relations and bargaining. Magaloni (2006) highlights how the voter faces a series of dilemmas and constraints which may result in them voting for autocrats. Citizens may also face a range of repressive measures, the study of which Davenport points out has been uneven and in which puzzles still remain (Davenport, 2007; Levitsky and Way, 2010). In the post-communist context blackmail and the collection of kompromat was found to be widespread, systematic and conducted by the state itself in Kuchma's Ukraine.

Elite relations and bargaining are central elements to transitions of power and as such may relate to both the demise of communist regimes, but also to the post-communist transition period. Again, there is a rich array of literature available to help further understand this issue.

Starting with the diversity in results of the transition, before considering the diversity in demise, the nature of the regimes, pre-collapse factors and the relations and bargaining of elites, this section has illustrated that there is a wealth of literature on all of these facets. Far from being repellent, this fact actually strengthens the position of such a project. This is because a wealth of literature, which tends to be highly segmented and divided, is encouraging in that it holds much potential for such a project, which attempts to build an approach which can connect the demise of communist regimes with the transitions which followed, in the context of the quality of democracy.

Summary

The introduction has laid out the research problem, the research question and hypothesis, the goals and objectives of the study, the logical foundations of the study, the limitations of the study, before outlining the structure of the study and engaging with the existing literature. There is clearly a divide between the study of the demise of communist regimes in Europe and the transitions which followed. A closer engagement with the literature illuminated other areas, including studies which focused on: the diversity of results of transition, the diversity in demise of communist regimes, the nature of the communist regimes, pre-collapse factors and elite relations and bargaining. The next part of this study deals with the issue of providing classifications or types to the various ways in which the communist regimes of Eastern Europe met their demise. This is an essential step in the process of building an approach which can connect the demise of communist regimes with the transitions which followed, in the context of the quality of democracy.

Dissertation validation

The typology of the dissertation, as well as all the main peer-reviewed articles published and provided in the dissertation resume, have been presented in international conferences where the candidate successfully dialogued with other scholars and those interested in the field of research. Examples of these conferences and their dates are summarily presented below.

1. Everett, J. (2021) "From Constitutional Changes to Duma Elections the Image of the Russian Citizen as Unready for Democracy" presented at The 8th Annual Nottingham Postgraduate Conference in Politics and IR: Picturing Politics: Images of the Political, University of Nottingham.

2. Everett, J. (2020) "The Contradictory Nature of Bureaucratic Authoritarianism in Russia" presented at Revisiting Linkages between Citizens and

Politicians in Contemporary Europe, Institute of Sociology of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic.

3. Everett, J. (2019) "The future of EU-Russian relations: a common European home?" presented at the PECSA International Conference Connecting the European Union of Shared Aims, Freedoms, Values and Responsibilities, Warsaw, Mazowieckie, Poland.

4. Everett, J. (2019) "Soviet Cinema and Remembrance: The Case of Repentance 1987" presented at the 10th Annual Cold War History Research Center International Student Conference at Corvinus University of Budapest.

5. Everett, J. (2019) "Measuring the Concentration of Power Within Political Systems" presented at The 7th Annual Nottingham Postgraduate Conference in Politics and International Relations, University of Nottingham.

6. Everett, J. (2018) "The Katyn Massacres and the Start of the Cold War" Paper presented at the 9th Annual Cold War History Research Center International Student Conference at Corvinus University of Budapest.

7. Everett, J. (2017) "How the Hypernormality of Communist Systems was Punctured" Paper presented at the 8th Annual Cold War History Research Center International Student Conference at Corvinus University of Budapest.

Coverage of dissertation materials in publications

1. Everett, Judas. Russia in the Putin Era - a Case of Bureaucratic Authoritarianism? // New Perspectives. 2022. Vol. 30. № 1. P. 47-67.

2. Everett, Judas. Poland and Hungary: Democratic Backsliding and the Shifting European Political Landscape // RUDN Journal of Political Science. 2021. Vol. 23. № 3. P. 394-406.

3. Redzic, Ena, and Judas Everett. Cleavages in the Post-Communist Countries of Europe: A Review // Politics in Central Europe. 2020. Vol. 16. №2 1. P. 231258.

4. Everett, Ju., and E. Redzic. Seeking Representation: The Development of Hungarian Minority Parties in Serbia and Slovakia // The Journal of Political Theory, Political Philosophy and Sociology of Politics Politeia. 2021. Vol. 101. № 2. P. 163-182.

Заключение диссертации по теме «Другие cпециальности», Эверетт Джудас Джейбс

Discussion

This study has attempted to build an approach which can connect the demise of communist regimes with the transitions which followed. As noted, there is a significant amount of existing literature on the diversity in results of the transition (Popov, 2000), the demise of communist regimes (Hale, 2000), and other factors linked to this demise (Pop-Eleches, 2007). However, these efforts tended to remain separate, the actual demise was not figured into the discussion of the transition. This study has attempted to provide methodological insight by going some way in bridging that gap. Evidence has been uncovered which suggests that this endeavour is not entirely without merit. Indeed, evidence to support the approach was found in all stages; however, some may argue that the issue of the type of demise of a regime is a less constant one than issues such as geography or previous statehood. However, beyond the presence of a kind of fatalistic acceptance of the poor chances a country may have of making progress, such links tend to be a black box - with only input and output visible and comprehensible. Moreover, where exceptions do appear, they prompt questions which such approaches are not able to answer.

The advantages of focusing on the type of demise is that they are easily identifiable and measurable, there is no need for benefit of hindsight. Those watching the demise in real time are able to make informed predictions about the kind of regime likely to rise from the ashes. Furthermore, while the type of demise is perhaps a sign of what came before, prior to the demise it is difficult to assess objectively, the demise may be the earliest point at which assessment is possible. This is due to the fact that many non-democratic regimes jealously guard information

and the size of counter movements or countercultures are difficult to assess. Due to the knowledge gap inherent in this kind of regime the demise represents the first possible juncture at which it is possible to assess such issues.

The survival of the political class, or some kind of opposition at all, was found to be important and this ties in with much research on this area, for example, Higley and Burton who have already been mentioned. However, others have focused on the type of elite and how they interact with the regime, e.g. O'Donnell (1982). Focusing on the level of institutionalisation is also a possible route to understanding the issues discussed here (Casal Bertoa, 2012; Enyedi and Casal Bertoa, 2018; Mainwaring and Torcal, 2006), indeed one which is highly related to what has already been discussed. However, Mainwaring and Torcal stress that the timing and sequence of the formation of democratic regimes and parties are critical explanatory variables, especially important is that new democracies are less attached to parties than they were in earlier generations of democratic polities (Mainwaring and Torcal, 2006).

An approach, such as the one built in this study, which considers the type of demise, is also potentially exportable to other scenarios and locations in a way which the focus on geographical explanations for the end of communist are not. While others, like previous experiences with democracy or statehood, may well prove to be exportable it is hard to assess how much remains of the civil societal growth which is likely responsible for the relatively strong democracy in such cases.

Future Research

This study represents just a small beginning in researching the relationship

between the demise of communist regimes with the transitions which followed. In future research the word consuming undertaking of process tracing may be expanded to include many different cases. The expansion beyond other cases and into other areas, for example economic, may also be a fruitful undertaking. Beyond further

application to communist cases, applying this approach to other cases in other periods and geographical locations would allow the general applicability of the said approach to be better ascertained. Further considerations of how certain junctures can launch other processes and condition the future may well be even more fruitful endeavours.

Список литературы диссертационного исследования кандидат наук Эверетт Джудас Джейбс, 2023 год

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